Disclaimer: Before I write about survivorship bias, I must add that I am no expert when it comes to the human mind and the way it thinks subconsciously. Any and every detailed analysis written in this blog about the human mind is nothing but my opinion about it. This blog must not be used as a basis for further research. You are encouraged to learn more about survivorship bias on your own.

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One of the greatest abilities that set us humans apart from the rest of the animal kingdom is being able to identify complex patterns in activities that help us to survive and learn from those activities to obtain a better life. A fisherman using a spear to catch fish will notice an increase in productivity. This will then prompt the fisherman, or his offspring, to incorporate the usage of tools in other activities to further increase productivity.

Unlike animals, humans are different in a way. We are social, VERY social. Not saying that animals are not social, but we humans are blessed (or have evolved) with the ability to communicate intricate scenarios with other humans. Naturally, as social beings, hidden beneath the subconscious, lies our ability to use this stream of complex scenarios to develop a robust ability to recognize and implement methods to always come out victorious from certain types of scenarios. However this ability to identify patterns that lead to success can skew our perception of such scenarios.

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Survivorship bias
To put it simply, survivorship bias is the cognitive ability to focus and recognize only on the factors which contribute to a "success". Keyword - only on the successful factors. It is the tendency we humans have to focus solely on the participants or the factors responsible to pass a selection process and entirely ignore all the negative factors.

Survivorship bias can be used to explain some of the most common behavioral patterns present behind some of the failed decisions undertaken by leaders and others around the world.

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World war II bombers

One of the most renowned examples of survivorship bias at its finest is the story of world war II bombers.

It goes something like this. The US wanted to improve its fleet of WW2 bombers. It was observed that all (or most of) the returning bombers had quite a lot of bullet holes that needed repairing. So in order to reinforce the chassis of these aircrafts, they plotted the most occurrences of these bullet holes in a diagram as shown above. It is easily observed that the surviving planes were inflicted with the most damage in these areas so they must be coated with more layers of protection.

However, what they failed to factor into their observation is the damage inflicted on the planes that did not return. It is clearly evident that planes that did not return were subject to damage in more vulnerable areas like the engine. Areas in which the returning planes received damages show that these areas are more durable to these damages.

Entrepreneurship

We all love rags to riches stories. We admire them and some of us (maybe this includes me haha) go as far as emulating them. We are under the illusion that if we remain persistent with our business venture, work hard, and remain meticulously strategic about our every decision, we will certainly ascend the business world and be a fortune 500 company. However, reality is not that utopian. The truth is 9 in every 10 companies fail in their inaugural year. Why is that so? Quite simply, business is not for everyone. Social media has blinded us to the point that if we don't run a ten million dollar company by the time we hit our 30s, we are just not successful. That is not the case. Granted that being triumphant in the business world has a lot to do with strategies, management, and perseverance, but factors like luck, environment, the people we come across, or other variables which we can not control contribute to the business just as much as the former.

Business and product management

When a competitor launches a feature or a service related to their product and proves successful, managers are often quick to release a similar feature or service. These managers are the same managers who are surprised when the new feature is met with a backlash. What they failed to realize is that even if they are in the same industry producing a similar product, their competitor(s) might have a different side product/feature/service which complements this new feature. Pushing features without a product analysis just because they fear that they might miss the train can actually have a negative impact rather than a positive one.

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What can we learn from this?
Personally, learning about survivorship bias has helped me out in my day-to-day activities by a large margin. It helped me to focus on myself and analyze my own circumstance rather than emulating other proven methods. It helped me to focus more on my mistakes and flaws rather than gloating about some of my achievements. Being aware of my flaws, I find it easier to identify my OWN methods to rectify them, creating my own story.